Is Google Fudging Search Volume Numbers w/ LLM Bots?

In a recent viral thread on X, investor Chris Camillo raised eyebrows by suggesting that Google's reported search query growth might be artificially inflated by AI-driven queries from tools like ChatGPT, rather than genuine human activity.

While Chris's hypothesis is intriguing, it veers into conspiracy territory and overlooks how AI is actually enhancing Google's ecosystem as a complementary top-of-funnel channel. If you're researching "Google search volume AI impact," "Chris Camillo Google allegations," or "is Google inflating search numbers with AI," this post breaks down why these claims don't hold up based on real-world data and industry insights. Let's dive in!

Understanding the Allegations: Chris Camillo's Thread on Google and AI

Chris Camillo, known for his unconventional investing strategies and featured in Unknown Market Wizards, posted a detailed 11-part thread on X. Keep in mind he is SHORT $GOOGL ( ▲ 3.17% ) ; so there is bias. His serious allegations could be designed to nuke the stock and fulfill his own prophecy. Or he could be short Google because of the allegations. This remains unclear. Nonetheless…

He argues that:

• Google's search revenue growth (up 12% YoY to $54.2B in Q2) could be masking a decline in human searches, as evidenced by Apple executive Eddy Cue's testimony that Safari searches fell for the first time in 22 years due to AI adoption.

• Anomalies in Google Trends data, like unexpected spikes in searches for brands like Lululemon, might stem from AI bots generating queries.

• A personal test with ChatGPT querying a made-up term ("organic Abercrombie socks") showed up in Trends, implying AI traffic isn't filtered out there.

• Advertisers might unknowingly pay for AI-generated clicks, raising ethical and financial concerns.

Chris calls for transparency. And he is not wrong. But until we get that transparency, Google is innocent until proven guilty. It's a thought-provoking take, especially amid ongoing antitrust scrutiny of Google. But as a DTC marketer who's managed millions in ad spend, I see a different picture - one where AI boosts, rather than fakes, Google's value.

My Take: ChatGPT and AI act as a complementary force for Google Search

Contrary to the inflation narrative, AI tools like ChatGPT are acting as a top-of-funnel accelerator for organic search, driving more human engagement to Google... for now. Here's why this complementarity makes sense, and why it's a net positive for Google:

1. AI Sparks Human Branded Searches

ChatGPT often serves as an initial discovery tool. Users ask broad questions (e.g., "best activewear brands"), get recommendations, but rarely does ChatGPT surface the direct link where you would purchase the product. Rather, it surfaces links that are mostly 3rd party validation (PR pieces) that the LLM used to inform it’s recommendations. The natural user behavior after getting a ChatGPT-recommended product is for the user to go to Google and initiate a branded search query. This creates a "linkless word-of-mouth" effect: people head to Google for branded searches like "Lululemon leggings" to dive deeper, shop, or verify.

This isn't bot traffic- it's genuine human curiosity sparked by AI. In my experience, this leads to spikes in branded search volume that wouldn't show up in traditional UTM tracking. It's why we've seen steady or improved performance in Google Ads campaigns this year, even as AI usage rises. If AI were replacing human searches, we'd expect dips in conversion rates or ROI, but that's not happening.

2. Google Trends vs. Search Volume Reports: Not the Same

Chris points to Google Trends anomalies as evidence of AI interference. However, Trends data measures relative interest (normalized on a 0-100 scale) and explicitly filters out low-volume or spammy queries. It's not a direct proxy for absolute search volume reported in earnings.

Earnings-related search growth comes from monetizable queries, which Google rigorously vets for quality. Comparing the two is misleading. Plus, Google's sophisticated systems (using machine learning and user signals) can easily distinguish bot vs. human traffic. Inflating numbers with AI sessions would be a massive risk, exposing them to advertiser lawsuits, regulatory fines, and loss of trust in an already scrutinized antitrust environment.

3. The Conspiracy Angle: Unlikely and High-Risk for Google

The idea that Google would deliberately include "fake" AI clicks in ad revenue feels like a stretch. Why?

• Technical Feasibility: Google has invested billions in AI detection (think reCAPTCHA and beyond). Bot traffic is flagged and excluded from billable clicks per their AdWords policy.

• Business Ethics: Revealing such practices would erode advertiser confidence overnight. As Chris notes, advertisers aren't paying for invalid clicks, but extending that to undisclosed AI traffic would be extremely dishonest and self-serving, something Google couldn't hide in today's transparent data era.

• Real-World Evidence: In my agency's portfolio, we haven't seen any decline in ad performance tied to AI rise. Click-through rates, conversions, and ROAS remain strong. If non-human clicks were flooding the system, we'd notice diluted results. Especially because AI-derived clicks still can not transact autonomously. Aka these AI clicks would never convert and impact performance. Once again, something Google would not be able to hide. Instead, AI is funneling higher-intent traffic to Google.

Nonzero chance? Sure. But the downside (antitrust escalation, class-action suits) far outweighs any short-term gain.

What Advertisers & Investors Should Watch For

If you're an advertiser worried about "AI-driven Google search inflation" or an investor eyeing $GOOGL amid "ChatGPT vs. Google search" debates:

• Monitor branded vs. non-branded search trends in your Google Analytics.

• Test AI prompts yourself (like Chris did) but cross-reference with ad performance data.

• Push for more disclosure: Google could clarify AI traffic handling in Trends and ads without much hassle.

What are you seeing? Drop your thoughts in the comments below or reply to my take on X.

Final Thoughts: AI as Google's Ally, Not Enemy

Chris's thread highlights valid concerns about transparency in an AI-disrupted world, but the evidence at this very moment points to synergy, not sabotage. ChatGPT isn't cannibalizing Google; it's feeding it with primed, high-intent users. As AI evolves, expect even tighter integration, perhaps Google licensing more AI tech to stay ahead.

Disclosure: I hold $GOOGL stock.

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